about GOLD

1.  100 Years of Gold Price Value Tracking:

1910	Cost of an oz. of gold: $20.67
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): 17 cents	.0082 ounces
	A nice suit: $25	1.21 ounces
	A car: $825 for a Model T (1908)	39.91 ounces
1920	Cost of an oz. of gold: $20.67
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): 40 cents	. 0193 ounces
	A nice suit: $60	2.9 ounces
	A car: $260 for a Model T	12.58 ounces
1930	Cost of an oz. of gold: $20.67
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): 43 cents	.02 ounces
	A nice suit: $25	1.21 ounces
	A car: $600 (average)	29.03 ounces
1940	Cost of an oz. of gold: $34.50
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): 36 cents	.02 ounces
	A nice suit: $25	.724 ounces
	A car: $850 (average)	24.64 ounces
1950	Cost of an oz. of gold: $40.25
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): 93 cents	.023 ounces
	A nice suit: $36.95	.92 ounces
	A car: $1,510 (average)	37.52 ounces
1960	Cost of an oz. of gold: $36.50
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $1.05	.029 ounces
	A nice suit: $79.50	2.18 ounces
	A car: $2,600 (average)	71.23 ounces
1970	Cost of an oz. of gold: $38.90
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $1.30	.033 ounces
	A nice suit: $56.95	1.46 ounces
	A car: $3,450 (average)	88.69 ounces
1980	Cost of an oz. of gold: $594.90
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $3.89	.007 ounces
	A nice suit: $199	.33 ounces
	A car: $7,200 (average)	12.10 ounces
1990	Cost of an oz. of gold: $386.20
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $2.99	.008 ounces
	A nice suit: $279.99	.725 ounces
	A car: $16,950 (average)	43.89 ounces
2000	Cost of an oz. of gold: $272.65
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $4.81	.018 ounces
	A nice suit: $475	1.74 ounces
	A car: $24,750 (average)	90.78 ounces
2010	Cost of an oz. of gold: $1,420.25
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $6.07	.004 ounces
	A nice suit: $2000	1.41 ounces
	A car: $31,352 (average)	22.07 ounces
2020	Cost of an oz. of gold: $1,900.00
	The Breakdown:
	Cost	Ounces of Gold
	Steak (by pound): $8.59	.007 ounces
	A nice suit: $2,000	1.65 ounces
	A car: $33,560 (average)	27.85 ounces

 

 

 

2.  요약 ..  gold 1 oz :  $20.7 => $ 2,560  (2024.09.21 현재) . .  124배,  steak : 50.5배,  suit : 80배,  car (avg.) : 40.7배

	$ ( vs.oz)	steak ($)	suit ($)	car ($)	$ ( vs.oz)	steak ($)	suit ($)	car ($)
1910	20.7	0.17	25.0	825.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
1920	20.7	0.40	60.0	260.0	1.0	2.4	2.4	0.3
1930	20.7	0.43	25.0	600.0	1.0	2.5	1.0	0.7
1940	34.5	0.36	25.0	850.0	1.7	2.1	1.0	1.0
1950	40.3	0.93	37.0	1,510.0	1.9	5.5	1.5	1.8
1960	36.5	1.05	79.5	2,600.0	1.8	6.2	3.2	3.2
1970	38.9	1.30	57.0	3,450.0	1.9	7.6	2.3	4.2
1980	594.9	3.89	199.0	7,200.0	28.8	22.9	8.0	8.7
1990	386.2	2.99	280.0	16,950.0	18.7	17.6	11.2	20.5
2000	272.7	4.81	475.0	24,750.0	13.2	28.3	19.0	30.0
2010	1,420.3	6.07	2,000.0	31,352.0	68.7	35.7	80.0	38.0
2020	1,900.0	8.59	2,000.0	33,560.0	91.9	50.5	80.0	40.7
2024	2,560.0				123.9

 

 

3.  $ vs. gold   (inflation adj.)  :  1915년 2월 =>  $605.99  ...  2024.09.21 : $2,560 ..   4.22배 증가 

 

 

4.  $ vs. gold   ( without inflation adj.)   :  1915년 aug. => $19.25 .. 2024.09.21 : $2,560 ..   133배 증가 

 

 

# 1915년 대비  명목증가는 133배,  실질증가는 4.22배 ..  100년간 gold value tracking 값 steak & avg. car 를 비교

   유의한 값으로 판단 됨..   ( 공급량에 대한 판단이 필요... 금 => 제한적,  달러 => 금본위제 폐지이후 too much..)

 

# 미국국가부채 : 2023년 초 - 31.4조 달러,   2023년 말 - 34조 달러  ( 미국 GDP 27조달러의 1.2배 )

   => 2차세계대전이후 1.1배 이후 최대

 

 # 넘쳐나는 달러의 몰락 (?)  => 안전 자산으로의 가치저장 수단 (?)

 

    1. 최근 각국 중앙은행의 금 보유량 증가

    2. 중국, 소련의 달러 보유량 비중 축소 ..  금융제재로 인한 자산동결 대비

    3. 기축통화로서의 달러에 대한 의구심 (QE, 국채증가)  => 달러의 몰락  ( 비트코인, RWA , 금, 은 부각?)

 

  # 금 가치에 대한 명목 달러 (133배 ) 및 실질 가치 (4.2배) 의 비교 ,  현재 1980년 수준의 실질가치 . .

     현재 사상최고가로 불리는 gold의 실질 가치는 고평가되었을까??    ....   I don't think so.